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Foreclosure Crisis Update

New numbers are out for the second quarter from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey and HOPE NOW.  After three years, the ramp-up phase of the foreclosure crisis seems to be ending, as the rate of mortgages in default or foreclosure has leveled off, albeit at historically unprecedented and appa

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Created by admin 8 hours 2 min ago – Made popular 7 hours 56 min ago
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Financial Perseverance: Lacking Nearly Everywhere


Perseverance.  What is it?  One definition is steady persistence in a course of action, a purpose, a state, especially in spite of difficulties, obstacles or discouragement.

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Created by admin 11 hours 51 min ago – Made popular 9 hours 56 min ago
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FT.com: The Crisis of Middle Class America

This  piece from the Financial Times is about a month old; just have not had time to get around to writing the entry it deserves.  It is a pretty comprehensive piece, and I always find it interesting to see views looking in on the U.S. from abroad.   This should be nothing new to long time readers as this story incorporates countless themes we've discussed on the website, but many of the topics we've been highlighting for years are now approaching critical mass as the (credit) tide has washed out.

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Created by admin 11 hours 11 min ago – Made popular 10 hours 40 min ago
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Don’t Be Fooled By The Rally


By Monty at economicnoise.com
For those invested in the stock market, Wednesday was a great day. The Dow rose over 250 points. [The rally has also extended into Thursday and Friday]

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Created by admin 11 hours 7 min ago – Made popular 10 hours 41 min ago
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Bookkeeping: Beginning to Rebuild F5 Networks (FFIV)

Interestingly with so many stocks going from oversold to overbought in the span of 72 hours, F5 Networks (FFIV) is not among them.  While it barely suffered a scratch during the selloff the past few weeks, it has not really advanced much either.  Instead it has built a nice 5-6 week base between the mid $80s and low $90s.  Today is the first day it has breached $92.50 since early August and in a benign market I'd say this is a no brainer for a new leg up.  In *this* bipolar market - who can ever tell.

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Created by admin 12 hours 4 min ago – Made popular 11 hours 55 min ago
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Credit Cards and Minimum Purchase Requirements

We’ve talked in the past about how the major credit card issuers don’t allow merchants to require a minimum transaction amount in order to accept a credit card (e.g., here and here). Well, guess what? That appears to be a thing of the past.

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Created by admin 12 hours 41 min ago – Made popular 11 hours 55 min ago
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Bookkeeping: New Positions - Gafisa (GFA), Titanium Metals (TIE), Power-One (PWER)

Here are some replacement names for some of the long exposure I cut.

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Created by admin 13 hours 46 min ago – Made popular 12 hours 55 min ago
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ISM Services Far Below Consensus - Market Ignores It

It has been a very telling day as I said this morning it would be.  ISM Services just came in at 51.5 versus expectation of 53 and previous month's 54.3.  Again, ISM Manufacturing gets all the press as if we still live in the economy of 40 years ago, but ISM Services is the much more representative report.  The S&P 500 sold off an entire 1.5 points on the knee jerk reaction.  Two weeks ago ...heck earlier this week, this would of caused a 2% swoon.

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Created by admin 15 hours 19 min ago – Made popular 14 hours 55 min ago
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Bookkeeping: Covering Symantec (SYMC) Short

This morning's gap up triggered my stop loss in Symantec (SYMC).  This name actually remained quite weak considering the huge move Wednesday and follow through day yesterday but finally it triggered a 3% threshold and I was out at $14.12.


With that I am mostly out of the short book other than some piddling index exposure.

No position

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Created by admin 15 hours 16 min ago – Made popular 14 hours 55 min ago
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Bookkeeping: Some Sales

I said I'd be looking to add some long exposure but that does not mean I am not going to sell some as well; what I want to do is sell some of the overextended names and buy some things that are not so overbought.  This way I can keep a decent long bias, but just change the mix of names & exposures.

Here are some sales (I've included Relative Strength index in the chart to show one signal of 'overbought')

I'm selling half of remaining Acme Packet (APKT) near $36 and will look to buy back on a pullback.

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Created by admin 15 hours 35 sec ago – Made popular 14 hours 55 min ago
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Mapping Out Our Financial Life

The other night I spent some time streamlining our banking system. I’ve more or less settled on three core online savings accounts: ING Direct, Ally Bank, and Discover Bank to go along with our local bank accounts.

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Created by admin 16 hours 16 min ago – Made popular 15 hours 56 min ago
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Research Assistant Wanted

http://www.michaelcovel.com

I need someone to help on video research. The research would involve searching CNBC online clips looking for particularly egregious fundamental predictions and other notable crazy statements since 2007. Not designed to be a paying job, but it would be a great project for a financial website and or small fund. I will make sure [...]SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Research Assistant Wanted", url: "http://www.michaelcovel.com/2010/09/02/research-assistant-wanted/" });

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Created by admin 16 hours 57 min ago – Made popular 16 hours 41 min ago
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Gap Up to S&P 1100 Locked and Loaded as Employment Picture Weakens Less than Expected

I won't go into too many of the particulars because this is such a convoluted report but private sector payrolls in August gained 67,000 versus expectations of around 40,000.  (the broader number is skewed by losses in census workers so not worth mentioning)   This is higher than ADP's -10K but of course ADP does not have the benefit of "creating" tens of thousands of birth death model jobs.

To put the 67,000 in perspective, July's figure was 107,000 so it's a degradation but again - all that matters is expectations.

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Created by admin 16 hours 55 min ago – Made popular 16 hours 55 min ago
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Reaction to News More Important than News Today

The past two days there has been a litany of economic news and it has been mixed.  You would not know that by the reaction in the market which has almost erased all of August losses in 2 sessions.  This goes to the point that at times the market wants to do what it wants to do, and it will cherry pick the required news as needed.

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Created by admin 17 hours 41 min ago – Made popular 16 hours 55 min ago
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Investing Blog Roundup: New Book in the Works

Hello, Dear Readers.
You may have noticed that my roundups haven’t included any guest posts for a while. That’s because I haven’t been writing any.

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Created by admin 18 hours 10 min ago – Made popular 17 hours 56 min ago
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Guide to attending earnings conference calls

At the end of each quarter, corporations listed on US stock exchanges file their earnings usually prior to trading opening or more often after the close. I try to listen in on these conference calls for the companies that I follow as much as possible. Here is a quick guide:
What?
Conference calls where company executives present the financial and operating activities, comment on future expectations and also answer questions from selected financial analysts

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Created by admin 19 hours 40 min ago – Made popular 18 hours 55 min ago
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Medtronic (MDT) Dividend Stock Analysis


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Created by admin 21 hours 41 min ago – Made popular 20 hours 56 min ago
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7 Dividend Stocks Sending More Cash To Shareholders


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Created by admin 22 hours 10 min ago – Made popular 21 hours 55 min ago
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Dividend Payers Versus Non Payers Performance in August

Although the month of August saw the average return for the dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index trail the non-payers and the S&P 500 Index as a whole, on a YTD and 12-month basis, the payers continue to outperform. On a year to date basis, the average return of the payers equals -.62% versus -3.41% for the non payers. On an average return basis, the payers and non payers are outperforming the market cap weighted S&P 500 Index.

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Created by admin 1 day 3 hours ago – Made popular 1 day 2 hours ago
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Link Roundup: Transmission Trouble Edition

Over the past week or so, my wife’s 2004 Odyssey has given her a blinking green “D” (drive) light on several occasions. After looking in the owner’s manual, we were a bit concerned because the blinking green light is a sign of transmission trouble.
For those that are unaware, the 2nd generation (1999-2004) Honda Odyssey has a history of transmission troubles, particularly in the earlier years. We were thus concerned that we might be facing a major repair.

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Created by admin 1 day 3 hours ago – Made popular 1 day 2 hours ago
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